One Nation passed both Labor and the Coalition in a new national opinion poll, highlighting major changes in Australian voting intentions since the 2025 federal election.
The News24 Pulse/YouGov survey, conducted October 13–20, placed One Nation on 27% of the primary vote. Labor recorded 24%, the Coalition 23% and the Greens 14%.
The poll surveyed 1,542 Australians. It found Labor and the Coalition tied at 50% on two-party-preferred voting, based on preference flows from the previous federal election.
One Nation Support Climbs Since 2025 Election
One Nation’s latest polling result represents a substantial change from the May 2025 federal election.
At that election, the party received 6.4% of the national primary vote. Labor won 34.6%, while the Coalition attracted 31.8%.
The latest YouGov result places One Nation more than 20 percentage points above its 2025 election result.
However, the party’s support slipped one point from the previous YouGov survey, which placed it on 28%.
Labor also fell one point, while the Coalition gained two.
Other Polls Show Similar Changes
Other October surveys recorded substantial support for One Nation, although the figures vary.
A Roy Morgan survey conducted between September 28 and October 11 placed Labor on 26%, One Nation on 24% and the Coalition on 21.5%.
The same survey found that 62.5% of Australians believed the country was heading in the wrong direction. Just 24.5% believed Australia was moving in the right direction.
The findings provide further evidence of public dissatisfaction, although they do not establish why individual voters changed their party preferences.
What the Polls Mean for Australian Politics
One Nation’s primary-vote figures present a significant change in Australia’s political landscape.
However, leading a national primary-vote survey does not automatically translate into winning a federal election.
Australia’s preferential voting system, the distribution of support across electorates and the allocation of preferences all affect parliamentary results.
The latest YouGov survey also recorded Labor leading One Nation 53% to 47% on a separate respondent-allocated two-party-preferred measure.
Nevertheless, the scale of One Nation’s polling increase since 2025 presents a challenge to both major political parties.
The next federal election will test whether One Nation can convert its national polling support into additional parliamentary representation.
