The One Nation poll surge now looks like a seat-by-seat story, not a national headline.
Former Australian Broadcasting Corporation election analyst Antony Green listed 25 federal electorates where One Nation reached the final three-candidate stage in the 2025 preference count.
Green used the three-candidate preferred count, known as 3CP, to spot seats where One Nation already survives deep into the distribution.
One Nation Poll Surge Watchlist Targets Regional, Outer-suburban Seats
Green said the 25 seats cluster outside inner-city areas.
He counted 12 in Queensland, six in New South Wales, three in Victoria, two in Western Australia, and one each in South Australia and Tasmania.
At the top of his table sit seats where the winning candidate finished on the lowest 3CP share in 2025.
Green highlighted seats like Wright and Longman, plus regional contests like Capricornia and Flynn.
The list includes both Coalition and Australian Labor Party seats.
Some seats may still resist a One Nation win, but the party can still shape the final result.
Why The Three-candidate Count Matters
Green pointed to two seats where One Nation reached the final pairing after preferences in 2025.
They were Hunter and Maranoa, held by David Littleproud.
In both seats, One Nation started third on first preferences and reached second place on preference flows from other right-of-centre parties, Green wrote.
That pattern matters for 2026 and beyond.
It shows where One Nation already benefits from preference deals and vote leakage among conservative minor parties.
Pauline Hanson greets supporters in Adelaide February 3rd 2026, NewsBlaze photo.
Barker Stands Out in South Australia
For South Australians, one seat stands out in Green’s table: Barker.
Green listed Barker as the only South Australian seat among the 25.
Polling also points to rising One Nation support in the state.
Roy Morgan’s state breakdown for late January put One Nation on 20.5% primary support in South Australia.
Bernardi Returns to Politics as Sa Lead Candidate
At a press conference in Adelaide, One Nation introduced Cory Bernardi as its lead Legislative Council candidate for the March 21 state election.
Bernardi, a former federal Liberal senator, said he felt “delighted” to return to politics.
“There’s been no opposition in this state, it’s as if the only competition we have between the two major parties is who’s going to manage the social, economic and cultural decline slightly less badly than the alternative,” he said.
“We can’t accept that anymore.”
He also set a blunt target for the campaign.
“Whether we have one seat, we have five seats or 22 seats, we will be the strongest voice of opposition that this government has ever faced.”
One Nation leader and SA lead candidate speak to reporters in Adelaide, February 3, 2026. NewsBlaze photo.
One Nation leader Pauline Hanson and SA lead candidate Cory Bernardi speak to reporters in Adelaide, NewsBlaze photo.
Former Adviser Warns About Marginals
Retired Liberal adviser Mark Croxford said national polling often misleads.
He argued elections turn on seat contests and preference paths, not a single headline number.
That logic sits behind Anthony Green’s list.
The One Nation poll surge now sets up a clear test for both major blocs: defend marginals, manage preferences, and stop the count turning into a three-way fight. As both Labor and Liberals continue to alienate more Australians with immigration and cost of living pressure One Nation will continue to increase support.
Anthony Green’s Three-Candidate Preferred Count in 2025
